Happy New Year

With the Chinese New Year around the corner, I thought I'll make a quick post about some of the popular New Year gambling games. To give credit where credit's due, this was mostly inspired by Changs and Colin.

In Between

The premise of the game is simple. Everyone gets dealt two cards. Some games allow everyone to be dealt cards before the game starts, others deal each player their cards by turn. After a player looks at his cards(which are open for all to see), he can, on his turn, make one of two choices:

1) pass, and forfeit his hand(and his ante)
2) draw a third card and play.

If he should so choose to play the game, he must bet an amount of money less than or equal to the amount of money already in the communal pot. The communal pot is built up from ante forfeits and lost bets by the players. If the player manages to draw a card that falls in between his two cards(Ace lowest, King highest), he is entitled to take from the pot the amount of money he bet. If the card falls outside the range, however, he puts the amount of money he bet into the pot. The worst case scenario is when he pairs his cards. If the third card pairs his hand, he has to put TWICE the amount of money bet into the pot.

As with every non-dealer, non-rake game, this game is a fair one. Meaning your value of playing the game is exactly 0. In the long run, playing as a rational player, you expect to break even. As you will see later, this makes the game a good one to play if you want to play in the New Year games. Other games are not quite as fair.

So how can we win a game with 0 value? Why would one even want to play this game? From an economical viewpoint, no rational person would play a game with no value. Here's a few reasons why, though

1) Value derived via entertainment
2) Value derived via lack of rational play from OTHER players

In other words, we play this game to perfection and hope others make mistakes. If you're starting to draw a relation to poker, you're absolutely right. In between is like a very simplified version of poker.

Here's the math behind it.
Your equity in any hand you bet is derived from the formula:

Equity = 1-(2X+Y)/D

X is the number of cards left in the deck that could pair your hand
Y is the number of cards left in the deck that falls outside your range(not inclusive of pairs)
D is the number of cards left in the deck

It may seem daunting to calculate your equity every hand, but a closer look at the formula reveals certain universal rules one needs to follow.

1) Never play any hand where you have a gap of 7 or less
2) Never play a hand where you have a gap of 8 unless Y or X has been reduced by cards dealt to others
3) Always play AK , AQ and 2K in early position.

With these 3 simple rules in mind, there Aren't really many hands where you have to get down to do the calculations. But it can't be hard to do the math either...the formula is so simple.

Let's say you're dealt 3K. That's a 9 gap. First thing you do is make a rough estimation of the deck. No need to be exact. Think in counts of 5s. 25/30/35/40/45 are really pretty much the only options. Now count the number of As and 2s that have appeared. Not hard right? Take 8 and subtract that number to get your Y. Now take 6 and subtract the number of 3s and Ks that have appeared(other than in your hand). Add your numbers together and divide it by the deck. If the resultant figure looks to be greater than 0.5, fold it. If not, bet.

Ok, math aside...I find it neccessary to talk a little on variance. In poker theory, we all know we should get all our money in the pot when we're ahead, no matter how little. One must bear in mind that in this game, the limits are not table limits, but pot limit. Obviously what I'm trying to say is, don't bet your whole bankroll on a single hand. 2 ways to look at this though.

1) The bet progression of a pot sized bet everytime you bet makes for a natural Martingale system. While mathematically correct, variance will eventually eat you up if you cannot support the bankroll. Another flaw of the system is that the Martingale breaks down if someone wins the pot before you do.

2) My personal recommendation : Pick a bet and stick to it. If you bet a constant amount through the game, always picking spots where you're ahead to put that amount in...you won't be one of the big pot winners everyone remembers, but you'll almost certainly be well off. You can expect on average to make about 10% of your bet. Meaning, you can expect to be up 10 dollars for every hand you play if you manage to make 100 dollar bets everytime you bet. I know, sounds pretty unglamorous...but that's what grinders do. Still, it's the new year, and if you can afford to pay 10k, go for the 5k pot when you have >50% equity if you want to. It's still mathematically correct.



Blackjack - Sg Home rules

The rules of this game is simple. Unlike the version played in the casino, cards are dealt to players face down, and the players then take turns to draw from the deck. Players need not declare when they bust. Once the players are done drawing, It's all up to the banker. At any point from here, he can request to open any player's hand and pay him off according to the strengths of their hands. The banker then procedes to draw and open cards until he is satisfied. He then opens the remaining hands and pays off the hands that beat him. If the banker busts, any unopened hands are paid off. In this way, the player can win even with a busted hand.

Different house rules are available everywhere, but here are a few common ones:
1) all players, including banker may fold without penalty if dealt 15 total
2) Pocket aces pay triple
3) Blackjack pays 2:1.
3) 5 cards below 21 gets paid 5:1.

All rules apply equally to the banker and player.

The strategy for playing a winning game of house rule blackjack is simple. Be the banker. Done. End of story. There is no winning player based strategy. Estimates put the banker's advantage at about 10%, and a much reduced risk of ruin than the player.


Blackjack - Casino rules

Casino rule blackjack is a game close to my heart. I have spent years studying the finer points of blackjack, reworking the mathwork calculated by many others before me. The rules are simple. The banker deals everyone 2 cards face up, and 1 for himself. He then proceeds to pay out blackjacks in a ration of 3:2, unless he holds an ace or a 10 value card. If he does, he proceeds to ask the blackjack player if he wishes to escape a push by taking 1:1 now. After this is done, the round of dealing to players commence. Any player who busts immediately loses his bet. This done, the banker draws his second card. If he does not make blackjack, he pays out in the form of 3:2 to anyone who has made a blackjack. If he does make a blackjack however, the player pushes. The dealer then proceeds to draw to 17 or higher. If he busts, he pays all remaining players. If he doesn't, hand strength determines the winners.

Lest be it thought to be a dull game for the player, a number of options are available during the drawing round to the player

1) The player may split any equal value card pair. Eg 77 or QK
2) The player may double up(and get only one more card) on any two starting cards that don't include an ace
3) The player may surrender any hand without drawing and lose only half his bet.

Blackjack played perfectly gives a 0.5% advantage to the dealer. As such, it is highly recommended that you take the dealer seat if it is available. You stand to gain more than 0.5% for 2 reasons:

1) Most people play horrible blackjack. Think of the worst poker player you've ever played with. He's almost certain to be a better poker player than a blackjack one.

2) Most people cannot take the variance because they tend to overbet. Martingale strategies users are also common. In the short run, most people run out of money to play, or simply stop playing out of disgust to "bad luck".

But there's an overriding reason to play the dealer here. You have a 0.5% advantage minimum. This is 0.5% of total bets placed. If each round gets 20 dollars worth of combined action, that's 10cents per round for the dealer. Multiply it by the 100 hands you play and you'll make a tasty 10 dollars. That's not including the value you get(quite substantial) from the above-mentioned dealer's reduced risk of ruin.


Anyway, good luck at the tables, and remember...those donkeys are your relatives=)